With such a big supply-demand shift ahead, yields might typically tend to climb, yet Wall Street sees only a modest march higher. That’s in part because there’s plenty of appetite internationally, given the world is awash in roughly $18 trillion of negative-yielding bonds, and the Fed’s Treasuries purchases, while reduced from 2020, will also still be a force. But with rates — and coupon payments — so low, even a small decline in Treasuries prices risks ending investors’ seven-year streak of positive total returns.

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